A Slowing Van Market Signals Broader Economic Pressures

A Slowing Van Market Signals Broader Economic Pressures

The UK’s light commercial vehicle (LCV) market continued its downward spiral in July 2025, marking the eighth consecutive month of decline.

Registrations dropped by 5.1%, with just 24,433 vans, 4x4s, pickups, and taxis added to UK roads. Notably, this represents the weakest July performance since 2022, as ongoing economic challenges are dampening fleet investment and overall demand.

 

How Different Segments Are Performing

 

The decline was uneven across categories. Small vans—those under 2.0 tonnes—experienced the sharpest drop, plunging 20.6% from the previous year. Larger vans (over 2.5–3.5 t) also saw a decrease, down 4.6%. The pickup segment continued its downtrend, falling 17.3%, likely influenced by recent tax changes redefining double-cab vehicles’ benefits.

 

On the other hand, the mid-sized van category showed some resilience, rising 2.5%, while 4x4 registrations edged up 0.5%.

 

Year-to-Date Trends Highlight Market Softening

 

Looking at the bigger picture through mid-2025, the overall van market is down 11.3% year-on-year. Certain segments like mid-sized and larger vans are particularly weak, with drops of 18.4% and 13.5%, respectively.

However, there’s a bright spot: rigid BEV vans over 3.5–4.25 tonnes surged—though from a low base—to register a remarkable year-on-year increase of over 121%.

 

Top Sellers Still Dominated by Traditional Models

 

Despite the downturn, familiar models continue to top sales charts. In July, the most registered vehicles were the Ford Transit Custom and Ford Transit, followed by the Mercedes-Benz Sprinter and Vauxhall Vivaro.

Through year-to-date figures, the Transit Custom leads comfortably, followed by the Transit, Ford Ranger, and Sprinter.

 

Revising Market Expectations for 2025

 

Reflecting weakening momentum, SMMT has revised its 2025 forecast downward. The expected total LCV registrations are now pegged at 321,000 units—an 8.7% decline, or 30,000 fewer vehicles than previously projected.

SMMT